הבית המרכזי
Milwaukee Bucks: 2014-15 roster
PROJECTED STARTERS
BRANDON KNIGHT, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report.
+ Emerging scorer with solid efficiency and high volume.
+ League-average deep shooter coming off poor season behind arc.
+ Not a starting-caliber defender, and lack of size hurts utility on that end.
Analysis
Brandon Knight was the Bucks' best player last season, a statement made with no intent of damning the kid with faint praise. Knight was demonstrably better than either of his replacement-level seasons with the Pistons. Even as the Bucks' season went south, he kept improving and maintained a work ethic that was impressive considering the fortunes of his team. Knight was as volume scorer, with a 27 percent usage rate that is higher than it would be on a good team. His efficiency was below average, but that was largely due to an off year shooting behind the arc. In every other facet of offense, Knight was improved and his offensive RPM ended up at plus-0.7.
The question about Knight is positional fit, and that's an issue that will never go away. He handles the ball enough to play the point, but he's not a natural playmaker. He's at his best attacking defenses off the pick-and-roll, and he's good in isolation. In both instances, he's better at setting up teammates than when he's off the ball, and he's just average as a catch-and-shooter. With Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo coming on, the Bucks can't really afford to have a ball dominator who primarily creates for himself. On defense, Knight was rated in the 12th percentile by Synergy; he put up minus-1.9 in RPM and he needs a lot of work. His size works against the notion of making him a full-time off guard.
GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Superior skills and length with unlimited potential.
+ Disruptive on defense but needs to learn schemes.
+ Affable personality should make him a fan favorite.
Analysis
The Greek Freak! There are plenty of reasons to be excited about Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the body, skill set and personality to become a big-time player in the NBA. Even on the grainy videos of his games in the low-level Greek league he came from, it was obvious why Antetokounmpo was drawing interest. He was a legit 6-foot-9 with an incredible wingspan, yet played in the backcourt and floated around the floor with confidence and unselfishness. The low caliber of competition in Greece and at his age, just 19, tempered expectations for Antetokounmpo's rookie season. He was a project. He found his way onto the court for 1,899 minutes and finished a tick better than replacement level. The sky is the limit, and Antetokounmpo could contend for MIP honors this season.
In the Vegas Summer League, Antetokounmpo played with the assertiveness of a player quite comfortable in his surroundings. His ballhandling has gotten even better — a must given his 19.4 percent turnover rate as a rookie — and he awed with an ability to cover vast swaths of the court in just a couple of strides. His outside shot looks promising, and he looks set to improve an offensive impact that was positive even in its nascent rookie form. For all his tools, Antetokounmpo is more of a work in progress on the defensive end, but he's got the work ethic to get better fast. Already he projects to post above average block and steal rates for a forward, cementing his future as a box score stuffer. He struggled against pick-and-roll sets when he had to switch off his man, and he had a tendency to lose track of shooters when making rotations. Typical young-player stuff. When he's fully formed, Antetokounmpo will be a nightmare for opposing scorers.
JABARI PARKER, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Talented, versatile scorer with NBA-ready arsenal.
+ Creates own offense at will.
+ Won't be asked to do much on defense, at least initially.
Analysis
The fortunes of the Bucks took a major upturn when the lottery left them with the No. 2 pick, and the Cleveland Cavaliers decided Andrew Wiggins was the best player on the board. That left Milwaukee with Jabari Parker from Chicago Simeon, via Duke, a pick that gives the Bucks their highest-profile draft pick in 20 years. Parker has all the tools, on and off the court, to be a superstar. Better: Not only does Parker hail from just a stone's throw from Milwaukee, he very much wanted to be taken by the Bucks. Best: The developing team Parker is joining is a perfect match for his skill set. Parker looked a little out of shape during the Vegas summer league, but late-summer reports are that he's improved his conditioning and has been playing very well in advance of a serious run at NBA Rookie of the Year.
Parker is a natural alpha scorer both in skills and attitude. His usage rate at Duke ranked 24th in the nation and was highest of any Blue Devil for the five years for which sports-reference.com/cbb has data. He scores in every way imaginable, inside the arc and out, and gets to the line. He's aggressive, but doesn't pay for it with an astronomical turnover rate. In Milwaukee, Parker immediately becomes the top offensive option, and he'll team with Brandon Knight to lead the Milwaukee offense. Parker won't carry a heavy load on defense, especially while he's transitioning his offense to the NBA. That works fine, as in Larry Sanders, John Henson, Damien Inglis and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have plenty of long, high-ceiling defenders to put around him.
ERSAN ILYASOVA, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report.
+ Elite long-range shooter coming off injury-plagued season.
+ When healthy, an elite defensive rebounder for his position.
+ Adequate defender with right support around him.
Analysis
Just a couple of years ago, Ersan Ilyasova looked like he was on the precipice of becoming an elite stretch-4 in the NBA, finishing sixth in the league with 9.4 WARP despite getting just 1,655 minutes. Last year, he wasn't much better than replacement level, losing six wins off his bottom line from 2012-13. Ongoing ankle problems explain a lot of the drop-off and he took this summer off to get right rather than play in the FIBA World Cup for his native Turkey. Like the rest of the Bucks, he gets a fresh start under new coach Jason Kidd, who mentioned him by name twice in Kidd's introductory news conference. That might or might not have been because Kidd didn't know anybody else on the roster.
Ilyasova is just entering his age-27 season, so he ought to be squarely in his prime. He hit 45 percent on 3s over his two best seasons while also providing elite-level defensive rebound rates. It's an alluring combination. Beyond those traits, Ilyasova picks his spots and tends to play it safe, making him a solid complementary player. At 6-foot-10, he's a long defender and solid in the team concept, though you don't want to leave him out on an island.
LARRY SANDERS, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Super-athletic, long defender and one of the game's top shot-blockers.
+ High-level rebounder when locked in.
+ No offensive game to speak of beyond dunks off lobs and put-backs.
Analysis
In August 2013, Larry Sanders signed a four-year, $44 million extension to his rookie contract. Then, before the new pact could even go into effect, he went out did things that would have ruled out such an extension if the Bucks had been able to table negotiations until after the season. The problems were myriad: a fight in a nightclub that left him with a torn ligament in his thumb; a suspension for marijuana use; a fractured orbital bone. He played in just 23 games and wasn't as good when he did get on the court.
The Bucks have 44 million reasons to get Sanders back on track, and with new owners and a new, player-friendly coach in Jason Kidd, it's a big season for him. When he's right, Sanders is an elite defensive force. Long and hyper-athletic, his shot-block rate is off the charts and he's a dominant defensive rebounder. Sanders' defensive RPM over the past two seasons is an otherworldly plus-61. On offense, when he's not dunking the ball, he's generally in trouble, and he's increasingly lost confidence in his face-up jumper. That's fine — the Bucks have other people who can score. They'll live with Sanders' dominant defense if he can stay on the court.
JOHN HENSON, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Long, athletic build, and good shot-blocker
+ Active on offensive glass.
+ Production exists in a vacuum and needs to be better integrated into team concept
Analysis
John Henson made incremental improvements in his second NBA season and remains an efficient player the metrics love and has plenty of room left for growth. And if you believe the reports out of Bucks training camp, Henson has indeed grown after hitting the weight room this summer. With elite length and top-shelf athleticism, the slight Henson spent much of his first two seasons getting pushed around. If the reports aren't just hype, look out.
Henson's shot selection improved as he made a more conscientious effort to shun the long 2s that he doesn't hit with any degree of efficiency. He finished 68 percent of his looks at the rim, per basketball-reference.com, and drew fouls more frequently. Of course, given his 51.4 percent mark from the line, the latter factoid is bittersweet. Though Henson blocks a lot of shots, his team defense is subpar. For his career per 36 minutes: 15.6 points, 10.7 boards and 2.1 blocks, 52 percent shooting. His RPM last season was minus-5.1 The No. 1 task moving forward is to leverage his production to helping at the team level.
ZAZA PACHULIA, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Solid offensive center with post skills and face-up ability
+ Good offensive rebounder
+ Limited athletically and does not block shots
Analysis
There's a lot to be said for guys like Zaza Pachulia, who is 11 years into a career as a backup center always solidly on the right side of replacement level with a well-defined skill set. He took on more of an offensive load than recent seasons, and his efficiency suffered as a result. His field-goal percent dropped from 48 percent to 43 percent. He made up for it with more assists and a drop in turnovers. The Bucks have more weapons this time around if healthy, so Pachulia should be able to go back to his old workload. SCHOENE isn't optimistic, seeing him dip below replacement for the first time since 2003-04.
KHRIS MIDDLETON, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Good deep shooter who can stretch the floor
+ Very low turnover rate
+ Struggled on defense and needs added muscle
Analysis
Khris Middleton seemed like an afterthought in the trade that brought Brandon Knight to Milwaukee and sent Brandon Jennings to Detroit, but he ended up playing 82 games, starting 64, and logging 2,460 minutes. The list of Milwaukee players as young as Middleton's 22 years who played that much reads like a who's who of Bucks basketball: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Ray Allen and Marques Johnson, among others. Middleton's numbers won't bowl you over, but the tandem of he and Nate Wolters was the only Bucks pair with significant court time to outscore opponents.
Middleton shot 41 percent from 3-point range in a low-usage role, making him an appropriate counterpart for Knight, especially since his turnover rate was so low. Middleton wasn't as effective on defense, and with his slight build struggles with the physicality of NBA wings. He reportedly hit the weight room over the summer and added much-need bulk in hopes of becoming a true impact 3-and-D player. If the work pays off, assumptions that Middleton's time as a starter was a one-year blip could be proven incorrect.
NATE WOLTERS, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Shifty shot-maker who is good in isolation
+ Takes care of the ball, and defends well in team concept
+ Needs to refine long-range shooting stroke
Analysis
After going with the No. 38 pick last year, Nate Wolters bounced around from team to team on draft night before landing with Milwaukee. After one season, the Bucks are awfully glad he did. Wolters' replacement-level stat line isn't going to wow anybody, and you can argue that he was overexposed by former Bucks coach Larry Drew. Yet, he posted a plus-1.0 RPM, and he teamed with Khris Middleton to become the Bucks' most effective tandem in terms of team success when they were on the floor.
Wolters was a great isolation player at South Dakota State, and you can see those skills in play as a pro despite his limited speed and athleticism. He's heady and shifty and always under control, and has knack for leveraging his shooting ability to get defenders off balance. Even better, Wolters proved to be an effective, pesky defender as long as he wasn't isolated. Once Wolters hones his 3-point shot, he's in for a solid run as a backup NBA point guard.
O.J. MAYO, SG
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Scouting report
+ Talented one-on-one scorer with effective deep stroke
+ Struggles inside the arc and with integrating teammates
+ Tends to fall out of shape when he loses interest
Analysis
O.J. Mayo hit rock bottom last season, finishing below replacement and falling out of the rotation of the league's worst team. Mayo remains a solid deep-range shooter who struggles terribly inside the arc. He's never drawn a lot of fouls, but last season pretty much stopped attacking the hoop altogether. Mayo's metrics on isolations are really good. If NBA games were decided by a series of one-on-one matchups, he'd be a superstar. It's all those pesky other players out there that cause the problem.
Mayo's M.O. seems clear: He's at his best as an alpha player who dominates the ball on offense, and he can even post encouraging metrics in that role. You just can't win with him that way. Unfortunately, if you try to slip him into a complementary role, his effectiveness wanes, as does his interest in little details like staying in shape. The Bucks are on the hook for two more years with Mayo, so they are really hoping Jason Kidd can figure this out and motivate a player who is never going to be the elite star he probably used to think he'd be.
JERRYD BAYLESS, SG
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Scouting report
+ Talented, quick scorer and instant offense threat
+ Dangerous when attacking, scoring and setting up others
+ Combo skill set doesn't play well on defensive end.
Analysis
Jerryd Bayless will begin his seventh season with his seventh organization, an emblematic statement of a talented player in many ways still trying to find himself as a professional. Bayless' top comp in SCHOENE is Randy Foye, which seems appropriate. It would be a great sign if one of these seasons, Jason Terry tops that list, because that's the best path to Bayless having an impact career, and not because he eventually plays in every NBA city. Bayless' curse is that he has an off-guard/combo-guard game in a pure point guard's body. Terry once had that, and he's an inch shorter than Bayless. Yet he found a niche as a secondary ball handler and instant offense threat off the bench, becoming the best in the league at that for a while.
Bayless needs to have the ball in his hands to run the pick-and-roll and attack defenders off the dribble. His outside shot is good, around average from deep, but he needs to leverage his penetrating ability to create for others. He's good on the catch-and-shoot — thus the "combo" part of his label — but can do more. He's not a natural playmaker, but creates for others well when he's in attack mode, as evidenced by his metrics on pick-and-rolls when the defense sends an extra defender. On defense, Bayless just hasn't found anyone he can guard, and his RPM on that end has been minus-2.5 or worse in all of his seasons. Crocodile arms have always been an issue.
JARED DUDLEY, SG/SF
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Scouting report
+ Coming off worst season because of knee trouble
+ Premier floor spacer when healthy
+ Good wing defender at two positions.
Analysis
When a 28-year-old player goes from 3.9 WARP to minus-1.4, you know something is wrong. According to Jared Dudley, a pair of knee injuries slowed him down and torpedoed his production with the Clippers. His 3-point shooting dropped to league average after he'd been over 38 percent for five straight years, and his foul-drawing rate, which dropped by nearly half, suggested a sudden inability to make plays against close-outs. Now that he's been traded to Milwaukee, the hope is that the knee woes were a one-year blip. When he's right, Dudley is a premier deep threat with a quick release and an above-average ability to get to the line. At 6-7, he's a solid wing defender at two positions and even last season, his defensive RPM came up position. Dudley isn't a needle-mover, but he fills a role and he's a respected veteran on a growing team that he can help mentor.
DAMIEN INGLIS, SF
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Scouting report
+ Well-built, long wing with exceptional reach and big hands
+ Shows potential as spot-up shooter
+ More athlete than skill player right now, but could make initial contribution on defense
Analysis
After taking Jabari Parker to become Milwaukee's next franchise player, the Bucks nabbed Damien Inglis with the first pick of the second round. The hope is that the long, athletic forward with a 7-3 wingspan can make an immediate impact as a defensive force. Though he's just 19, Inglis has a chiseled, mature body and is listed as carrying 240 pounds on his 6-8 frame. Playing last season for Chorale Roanne in France, Inglis was efficient in a low-usage offensive role. He spent most of his time running the floor or spotting up, and hit 39 percent on 3s. If that's all he does for the Bucks initially, he'll still play because of his defensive upside. Right now, it is just upside, as his metrics were below average. SCHOENE doesn't see a big impact right off the bat. A broken foot kept him off the court this summer, but he was ready for training camp.
KENDALL MARSHALL, PG
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Scouting report
+ Skilled passer and orchestrator of pick-and-roll
+ Turnover rate too high and struggles inside arc
+ Lack of athleticism hinders effort on defense despite good size
Analysis
Kendall Marshall's performance as a pro has matched the scouting reports of him coming out of North Carolina. He's a heady, pure playmaker, and he's got good size for a point guard. He's a slow, below-average athlete and lacks shot-making ability. He was much better for the Lakers in his second year, climbing above replacement level while running Mike D'Antoni's fast-paced, pick-and-roll schemes. Marshall finished 10th in the league in total assists even though he played just 1,564 minutes. While his scoring arsenal is very limited: Marshall had a usage rate of just 16.4 percent despite his astronomical turnover rate, and made just 41 percent of his 2s.
Marshall did hit 40 percent from behind the arc, a surprisingly good rate that made defenses pay for sagging away from the pick-and-roll. His offensive RPM of plus-1.0 suggested a positive impact. His defensive RPM (minus-2.7) suggested the problems that come with a lack of athleticism. It's a skill set that a team can use, but not in a starting role. He's easily the best playmaker on the Bucks' roster, but Milwaukee has enough players who need the ball in their hands that you don't want a ball-dominant point guard. It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out.
JOHNNY O'BRYANT III, PF
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Scouting report
+ Big, physical classic power forward
+ Needs better balance of volume and efficiency
+Lack of athleticism limits defensive upside
Analysis
Johnny O'Bryant, the second of the Bucks' three second-round picks in June, has the height and heft of a classic NBA power forward, and he mixes it up in the paint just like those 4s of yore. O'Bryant was a volume scorer at LSU, putting up so-so shooting percentages and making frequent trips to the foul line. He rebounds well at both ends, but will need to cut turnovers and learn to be a complementary player. Has the size to body interior scorers, but lack of athleticism limits upside on defensive end. Hope is that he turns into a high-quality, post-scoring option.
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Chicago Bulls: 2014-15 roster
PROJECTED STARTERS
DERRICK ROSE, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ When healthy, one of league's most athletic attacking guards.
+ After playing just 10 games over past two seasons, showed considerable rust over summer.
+ Can be a disruptive defender who delays opposing point guards from initiating offensive sets.
Analysis
Once again, we're entering an NBA preview season with Chicago essays centered on the theme of whether Derrick Rose can recover his former MVP form. After last season's hyped-up "The Return," this time feels very different, which you'd expect being that his comeback lasted all of 10 games. A cynicism has set in about Rose in Chicago, an inevitable product of missing 79 percent of his team's games over a three-year period. Rose was back on the floor in August, toiling for Team USA in the FIBA World Cup as the backup for Cleveland's Kyrie Irving. Rose seemed OK physically, but 25 percent shooting and a 1-for-19 showing on 3-pointers suggested he has a lot of rust to shake off before we can even think of attaching the letters M-V-P to his name again. At least he played, though, and held up through clusters of games, including one stretches of five games in six days.
Rose looked terrific in the preseason a year ago, ranking right with Kevin Durant atop the exhibition WARP leaderboard. Then when the real games started, Rose was passive and out of step. His foul rate was down 5 percent of pre-injury level, his percentage at the rim was down 5 percent and his success rate just beyond that, where he used to hit so many floaters, was down 19 percent from his career mark. His percentage on long 2-pointers was just 10.5, he had just one dunk in 311 minutes, and many of his looks came in catch-and-shoot situations. It just wasn't Derrick Rose, and the Bulls need him back on the attack worse than ever because with a deeper roster, a productive Rose could mean a legitimate shot at a championship. Given the star-fueled look of Cleveland's revamped roster, if Rose is again outshined by Irving, the Bulls' hopes of winning the East will be dim.
JIMMY BUTLER, SG
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Scouting report
+ Rugged defender who plays either wing position.
+ Better off the bounce than from outside, but shoots well from corners.
+ Does not create a high volume of offense for a starting wing.
Analysis
Jimmy Butler continues to blossom into an upper-tier NBA wing despite a lack of an accomplished offensive game. Last season, he earned second-team all-defense honors and was named to the Team USA Select team during the summer, though he had to bow out of the workouts with a groin injury. Butler is a hard-nosed defender perfect for a Tom Thibodeau team, and is comfortable swinging between either wing position. He played more at 3 during his first two seasons, last season he was more of a 2. This season, he'll move around depending on Thibodeau's lineup choices, as he'd ideally pair Butler with a shooter such as Mike Dunleavy Jr. or rookie Doug McDermott, with Butler drawing the more difficult defensive assignment.
Butler's offensive game is raw. Last season, with Derrick Rose out, Butler upped his usage rate to 17 percent, still low for a starting wing. His efficiency dropped, mostly due to a 3-point percentage that fell from 38 to 28 percent. Butler did hit 43 percent from the corners and shoots in the high 70s from the line. Now that he should be playing off Rose and next to better floor spacers, Butler should be able to get his success rate near the league average. He's very good off the bounce, with a consistently high rate of drawing fouls. His defensive metrics don't jump out, either by video metrics (74th percentile per Synergy research) or RPM (plus-0.4), but he's an essential clog to one the league's top defenses. Butler is eligible for an extension to his rookie contract, and the Bulls would surely love to lock up a potentially elite role player.
MIKE DUNLEAVY, SF
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Scouting report
+ One of league's most consistent spot-up shooters.
+ Has terrific passing and ballhandling skills for his position.
+ Defensive metrics better than reputation.
Analysis
Mike Dunleavy Jr. has been a quality pro for 12 seasons, spent mostly with mediocre-to-bad teams. He has played in only 14 career playoff games, winning just two, and never advancing beyond the first round. This season, at 34, Dunleavy should get his first shot at some high-profile postseason play, and he won't be merely a spectator. Dunleavy has posted as many as 8.3 WARP in a season, but has gradually slid into low-usage, high-efficiency roles the past few seasons. He's one of the league's most consistent deep shooters, hitting 38 percent last season, which actually represented his low-water mark for the past four seasons. His passing and ballhandling remain a constant.
Dunleavy played all 82 games for Chicago and his 2,586 minutes were his most in seven seasons. The Bulls were shorthanded, so head coach Tom Thibodeau played a rotation much tighter than it figures to be this time around. Last season, Dunleavy's RPM (plus-2.9) was his highest yet, and he was a positive on both ends of the floor. Maybe it's the support of Thibodeau's system, but despite a poor defensive reputation, Dunleavy rated in the 91st percentile in Synergy's ratings, rating excellent against the pick-and-roll and in isolation. He has become an average shot-blocker for his position, which for Chicago was strictly small forward. He'd played a fair bit of stretch 4 in previous stops, but Thibodeau likes to stay big. Dunleavy hits free agency after the season, so it would be to his advantage if he got to play in some high-leverage games before that happens.
PAU GASOL, PF
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Scouting report
+ Skilled post scorer and passer with face-up ability along the baselines.
+ At 33, posted career-high rates in rebounding and shot-blocking.
+ Solid on defense when near the basket, but increasingly vulnerable out on the floor.
Analysis
Pau Gasol's last season with the Lakers was out of character, in some ways good, and in other ways not so much. Playing on a truly bad team for the first time since his early days with Memphis, Gasol morphed into a volume scorer. His usage rate (26.5 percent) was his highest since his days with the Grizzlies. His true shooting percentage was again off, and for the second season in a row. Yet for all the criticism Gasol took for his defense, he establish a new career high in both defensive rebound and blocked shot percentages. The strange combination of factors meant that, at 33, Gasol's athletic indicators spiked to their highest-yet levels.
Despite all that, Gasol is not as athletic as he used to be. His defense was a mixed bag, still solid when guarding the post, but poor against the pick-and-roll. Video underscores the metrics on that: Gasol sometimes looked like he had skates on as he wheeled backward against ballhandlers whizzing by on their way to the hoop. Yet, after signing a three-year deal with Chicago, we can expect Gasol to resume his previous career trek. He's still a capable post scorer and passer, whose efficiency should improve on the deeper Bulls. Chicago has four starter-quality big men this season, which for Gasol should mean more carefully management minutes and a chance to focus on his strengths. Gasol took less money than he could have had elsewhere to help the Bulls win, and judging by the good things he did last season on a bad team, and the sterling output he had for Spain in the FIBA World Cup, he seems poised to do just that. SCHOENE, however, believes Gasol is reaching an age where he's due for a fall-off.
JOAKIM NOAH, C
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Scouting report
+ Skilled high-post passer with a guard-like assist rate.
+ Consistent finisher with just enough of a face-up jumper to keep defenses honest.
+ One of NBA's best defenders, can protect the rim and move laterally against pick-and-roll.
Analysis
Joakim Noah enjoyed a career season in 2013-14, posting 14.0 WARP and earning first team All-NBA honors. He also again made the league's first team all-defense squad, but the biggest difference in his performance was the load he carried on offense in Derrick Rose's absence. Noah became a point center much of the time, with Chicago running its offense through him in the high post. His assist rate was higher than, among others, starting point guard Jose Calderon and Damian Lillard, and he became a consistent triple-double threat. Noah also used more possessions than ever before with his array of putbacks, jump hooks and side-spinning face-up jumpers.
Noah did all of that while remaining the centerpiece of an elite defensive unit. He's posted a defensive RPM of plus-2.0 or better every season of his career, and was at plus-2.5 a year ago. The problems is that all of this responsibility takes a toll on the formerly brittle center who logged 2,818 minutes, 396 more than his previous high. After the season, Noah underwent arthroscopic surgery to clean up his left knee, though he's supposed to be fine for training camp. Noah's workload should diminish with the Bulls adding Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic to help in the frontcourt, and Rose hopefully returning to full-time action.
RESERVES
TAJ GIBSON, PF
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Scouting report
+ Solid midrange jump shooter.
+ Equally effective as a starter or in a key bench role.
+ One of the league's best and most versatile defenders.
Analysis
Taj Gibson has been a touchstone for the Bulls ever since he came into the league. His game has evolved little since he came into the NBA, and that's a good thing. What has changed are the players around him, and with Carlos Boozer in decline, last season Gibson played nearly 900 more minutes than the season before. The increased exposure upped his per-game averages, brought more attention to his elite defense and led to Gibson finishing second in the sixth man of the year balloting. Boozer was released through the amnesty provision after the season and for a while, it looked like Gibson might get his crack at starting. Then Chicago brought Nikola Mirotic over from Spain, and signed future Hall of Famer Pau Gasol. Gibson remains crucial to the Bulls' fortunes, and there is no way head coach Tom Thibodeau will let him rot on the bench, but it also seems certain that Gibson will see less of the floor this season, whether or not he ends up starting.
With Chicago desperate for offense, Gibson used more possessions than usual, adding additional post sets to his usual array of midrange jumpers. He's just average on the block, though, with a tendency to rely on his athleticism to power over people and taking tough shots. He seldom drew double-teams in the post, but when the defense did send an extra man, his so-so passing skills were often exposed. He makes his money on the other end anyway, where his rare combination of length, mobility, leaping and will make him a versatile and reliable stopper. You can use him on just about anyone, including top-scoring wings for stretches. His defensive RPM has been plus-2.1 or better in each season he has played for Thibodeau.
KIRK HINRICH, PG
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Scouting report
+ Average efficiency as a playmaker.
+ Struggles to score inside the arc no longer offsets average deep stroke.
+ Consistent, pesky on-ball defender who can guard both backcourt positions.
Analysis
It's safe to say that Kirk Hinrich means more to the Bulls than he would to other teams, and it's probably just as safe to suggest the vice versa is also true. Despite posting his second straight season of exactly 1.0 WARP, Hinrich was retained by Chicago this summer on a two-year, $5.6 million deal that has a player option on the second season. Hinrich was overexposed in getting 2,120 minutes last season, at least on offense. His playmaking skills are just average at this juncture, and when he plays off the ball, he's also just average. When you combine average efficiency with low volume, you get a player with a negative RPM, which Hinrich has had on offense five years running.
Yet his solid skillset plays better as a third guard since he can play both backcourt positions with above-average defensive production. Hinrich had a career-best plus-1.3 defensive RPM, and ranked in the 75th percentile per play, according to Synergy. The combination of all those factors, along the respect he commands in the locker room, have made him a favorite of fans and the organization alike. Now with Derrick Rose returning, Hinrich can go back to being a prototypical third guard, where his age-34 game will be much more appropriate.
NIKOLA MIROTIC, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Long, consistent stretch big.
+ Gets to foul line at well above-average rate.
+ So-so defender who will have to adapt to the NBA style of play.
Analysis
After having his name dangled in front of Bulls fans for several years, Nikola Mirotic will finally get to show Chicago what he can do after inking a three-year deal to move stateside this summer. Mirotic was a decorated performer for powerful Real Madrid, but still doesn't turn 24 until February. He's an experienced player with polish, but still with a fair bit of upside. Mirotic's offensive repertoire is what is exciting, especially the 39 percent 3-point percentage he fashioned during is overseas career. At 6-foot-10, Mirotic give Chicago a stretch big man unlike any they've had in recent seasons, and it gives Mirotic a skill unique among Chicago's deep crew of big men that will get him on the floor. It's also possible Chicago will slide Mirotic over to the 3 at times, where his length will spring matchup problems for opposing defenses.
SCHOENE projects Mirotic as a below average rebounder and defender, though its overall forecast of 5.2 WARP would almost certainly make him Rookie of the Year. Mirotic's defensive metrics in Europe were OK, and it seems likely he'll take some time to adjust to the speed of the NBA. He hasn't seen much of the pick-and-roll, and that's going to be a process for him in Chicago. Luckily, the Bulls will always be able to pair him with a good defensive big man who protects the rim. There's plenty of statistical justification for all the excitement Mirotic has generated.
DOUG McDERMOTT, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Polished, experienced, elite college scorer.
+ One of nation's best 3-point shooters, but can score in post as well.
+ Tiny steal and block rates raise flags about defensive ability.
Analysis
The Bulls were thrilled to deal for No. 11 pick Doug McDermott on draft night. As one of the most decorated players in the country during his four seasons at Creighton, McDermott has more polish entering the league than perhaps any other rookie in his class, with the possible exception of teammate Nikola Mirotic, a longtime star in Europe. The polish in McDermott's game is a good thing, because the Bulls need him to hit the ground running. Given the slashing games of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, and the deep contingent of big men on the Bulls' roster, floor spacing is going to prove vital.
That's where McDermott comes in: He shot 46 percent from deep on nearly 600 attempts as a collegian. However, McDermott is as much a scorer as he is a shooter, with the ability to play in the mid-post and to make plays off defenders who get too aggressive on closeouts. He takes care of the ball, gets to the line and over the summer showed a heightened knack for making plays for others. All this makes him a rookie of the year candidate — if his defense is adequate enough to get him the requisite court time. His overall defensive metrics were solid at Creighton, according to Synergy rating in the 84th percentile. However, his steal and block rates were minuscule, a combination that doesn't usually bode well for an NBA defender. Nevertheless, he'll get plenty of chances to prove his mettle on defense because Chicago not only needs McDermott's offensive production, it needs the manner by which he puts up those glossy numbers.
AARON BROOKS, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Streaky 3-point shooter who can create own shot off the dribble.
+ Effective in the pick-and-roll when looking to score.
+ Undersized and is a consistently poor defender.
Analysis
After a brief run as a starting point guard in Houston, Aaron Brooks has now played for two teams in each of his past three NBA seasons, and hopes to stick around as a backup to Derrick Rose after signing a one-year deal with Chicago this summer for the veteran's minimum. He'll battle Kirk Hinrich and E'Twaun Moore for backup minutes, and offers more 3-point shooting than his competitors. Brooks is solid in the pick-and-roll as long as he can get his own shot, but that fits the profile of other undersized Bulls point guards like D.J. Augustin, Nate Robinson and John Lucas III.
If Brooks sees much of the court, it'll be as an instant offense threat because of his ability to create for himself. If effective, it's possible he could see time playing with Rose for stretches. He struggled inside the arc last season, and may be morphing into strictly a perimeter threat. Brooks' defensive RPM has been minus-2.5 or worse in all six of his NBA seasons, and last season's minus-5.2 was his worst yet. In other words, the Bulls won't be looking at him as a defensive stopper.
NAZR MOHAMMED, C
| Pelton's 2014-15Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Offers little on offensive end, with even face-up shot no longer a reliable tool.
+ Solid, well-liked veteran whom coaches like to have around.
+ Still contributes rebound and block percentage better than average for center position.
Analysis
Having Nazr Mohammed on the roster doesn't do any harm. He's old as Methuselah, has been around a lot of good teams, is from Chicago and is well-liked by coaches and teammates alike. He has been the Bulls' nominal backup center in the two seasons since they lost Omer Asik to free agency, and Mohammed's lack of utility contributed to Joakim Noah's bloated minutes total in 2013-14. Mohammed got into 80 games last season, but averaged just seven minutes. His production was a touch below replacement level. He doesn't do much on offense anymore, as even his once solid face-up shot seems to have gone away, and his offensive RPM was minus-4.0. All Chicago needs him to do on its now-deeper roster is defend when called upon — block some shots, grab some rebounds and commit some fouls. He does all of those things at an above-league average level and SCHOENE thinks he can keep it going for another year. If SCHOENE is wrong, Mohammed's camp invite does not come with a guarantee, so he's easily floated out into the bay like an expiring Eskimo.
TONY SNELL, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Long, lean wing with potential as a disruptive defender.
+ Has nice touch from outside with 3-point range.
+ Seemed indecisive as a rookie, but more assertive during summer league play.
Analysis
Tony Snell played more than expected as a rookie thanks to Chicago's perpetually short-handed roster. The results weren't great, though there were enough flashes to think highly of Snell's future promise. A lanky, long wing, Snell was at times overwhelmed by the physicality of the NBA. He struggled in the pick-and-roll on both ends of the floor, getting rubbed off too easily against screens on defense, and getting bogged down with indecisiveness on offense.
During summer league play, Snell looked like he had improved his body, ballhandling and shooting, and generally looked like a more confident player. His ability to make plays off the dribble is important, because he looked like this catch-and-shoot game was much better. Last season, Snell needed a dribble to catch his rhythm; now he just lets it fly. With the added confidence comes decisiveness on the floor, and if he blossoms as a second-year player, Snell would be just another successful product of head coach Tom Thibodeau's player development machine.
E'TWAUN MOORE, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Low volume combo guard.
+ Protects the ball well, but more adept at getting own shot than setting up teammates.
+ Steadily poor defensive indicators.
Analysis
If all goes well, Moore will have a great seat for some really good basketball this season. Moore hooked on with the Bulls on a partially-guaranteed deal that probably ensures he will break camp with the team, unless he really stinks it up during preseason. Moore was signed as a practice player and a hedge against injury. We know about Derrick Rose's issues, and for all of Kirk Hinrich's toughness and moxie, he tends to get beat up a lot as well. So Moore could be an important practice player, but he will be situated behind Rose, Hinrich and Aaron Brooks on the Bulls' depth chart. Moore has a combo guard's game, and suffers for it on the defensive end at the pro level. His offensive efficiency has vacillated according to his usage rate — the more he tries to do, the more unplayable he becomes. His RPM has been negative on both ends of the floor in each of this three NBA seasons. Still, Moore protects the ball well enough and provides just enough of a deep threat to draw a SCHOENE projection just a whisker above replacement level.
CAMERON BAIRSTOW, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Typical Chicago draft pick as an experienced college player from an established program.
+ Solid post skills on both ends of the court.
+ Needs to improve body and face-up game to establish a professional niche.
Analysis
After a distinguished four-year career at New Mexico, Cameron Bairstow was taken by the Bulls at No. 49 in June, and subsequently received a guaranteed first-year on his contract. In Chicago, Bairstow will rejoin former Lobo teammate Tony Snell. Chances are, Bairstow will enjoy something of a redshirt rookie season, as Tom Thibodeau prefers to use his assistants to develop rookies in practice, and they don't see much game action, either in the NBA or the D-League.
Bairstow was a college bruiser and improved markedly as a senior, upping his field goal percentage by more than 100 points while doing most of his damage in the post. He's not an exceptional athlete, and will need to improve his 6-foot-9 frame in the weight room in order to bolster a college rebound rate that was nothing special. He'll also need to develop some face-up range after making just two 3-pointers at New Mexico. Bairstow is a solid positional post defender, but must improve his footwork when guarding the pick-and-roll.
*)*****************************
PROJECTED STARTERS
KYRIE IRVING, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Blossoming, upper-tier point guard with good playmaking and ball-protection skills.
+ Equally adept scoring on jumpers off the dribble with range and attacking the lane.
+ Indifferent defender despite high-level athletic ability.
Analysis
It's crazy how ephemeral professional sports can be. Early last season, Kyrie Irving's name kept popping up on the whisper-mill as a possible candidate to turn down a max extension to his rookie contract, sign a qualifying offer, and bolt Cleveland as soon as possible. Now, that max extension is on the books — five years, $90 million — and Irving is in the enviable position of trying to aid LeBron James' quest to bring championship glory back to the banks of Lake Erie. Irving will play a younger version of Dwyane Wade in the James reboot and if his play for Team USA over the summer is any indication, it's going to be a successful project.
Injuries, losing and coaching turnover have stunted Irving's growth in the NBA. Last season, his shooting efficiency dropped, though the losses were partially offset by a better turnover rate in Mike Brown's system. After hitting 39 percent or more from deep, he fell to 36 percent. Playing alongside James, Irving's catch-and-shoot skills will be tested. According to Synergy, Irving ranked in just the 27th percentile in those spots last season. He shot nine percent better off the dribble than without. Still, the attention James attracts will help boost Irving's already fine pick-and-roll game. He draws fouls and kicks out to shooters well. On defense, Irving has been a consistent negative despite his athletic gifts, posting a minus-2.0 defensive RPM or worse in all three of his seasons. Hopefully that changes now that the stakes are higher.
DION WAITERS, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Versatile volume scorer.
+ Good with ball in hands, but improved as catch-and-shooter.
+ Combo guard body and struggles on defense.
Analysis
How's it all going to fit? That's the No. 1 question, and an exciting one, for the Cavaliers entering the season. That question was relevant for Waiters even before the blockbuster offseason, but now it's more pertinent than ever. Waiters didn't improve much in his second NBA season, finishing right at replacement level. His usage rate of 27.1 percent was prolific; his true shooting percentage of 50.8 was not, and was barely better than his first season. His possession distribution was the same, save for a few drawn fouls becoming for turnovers. The Cavs were better off with him on the floor according to RPM, but just barely.
Waiters might be able to continue his high-volume ways by embracing the sixth man role. He says he wants to start. Fine. But to do that, he can't be the same player. Waiters hit 37 percent from deep last season, an encouraging sign, and he was particularly good in catch-and-shoot situations. He can reduce his usage by being more judicious with his forays to the basket. He's struggled to finish as a pro, and doesn't draw a particularly high rate of fouls. Waiters reportedly spent his offseason slimming down, which hopefully will help him improve a shoddy defensive record. There are changes Waiters can make, but with James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving expected to account for 75 to 80 percent of the Cavs' possessions, there's only so much Waiters will be allowed to do.
LEBRON JAMES, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Remains the NBA's best player.
+ Has three straight seasons with usage rate over 30 percent, and true shooting percentage over 60.
+ Former all-NBA defender whose performances there ebbed last season.
Analysis
The ground is still shaking from LeBron James' decision to leave Miami and return to his native northeast Ohio, making the Cavaliers instantly the marquee franchise they were before he left four years ago. James is still the best player in the game, Kevin Durant's MVP season notwithstanding, but at the end of four straight runs to the Finals with the Heat, there were some ever-so-slight signs of wear-and-tear — if you look real close. He had to carry more of an offensive burden with Dwyane Wade's minutes being carefully managed. He did so by posting yet another career high in true shooting percentage. He played less at power forward, so more of his game drifted back behind the arc. He drew more fouls, but his turnover rate was a career worst. And of course, in the end, James didn't have quite enough to carry the Heat to their much-desired three-peat.
There was much talk about James' decline on the defensive end. His RPM there fell below break-even, at minus-0.8. His defensive rebounding was down by 1.9 percent, and his shot-block rate was its lowest in seven years. Given his offensive load and his 38 minutes per game, James had to conserve energy somehow. Now that he's on a younger roster with lots of offensive firepower, we could see James become more of a point forward than ever, despite the presence of Kyrie Irving in the lineup. He went on a low-carb kick after the Finals and looked remarkably trimmed down. That bodes well for his ability to last another long season, and suggests time as a power forward will be limited. Expect some of the best floor-game percentages of James' career and an emphatic answer to those who decried his defense.
KEVIN LOVE, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Rare combination of post play and 3-point shooting ability from frontcourt.
+ Elite rebounder on defensive end, though increased time on perimeter has undermined offensive board rates.
+ Poor defensive reputation not supported by metrics.
Analysis
Rarely has back-channeled disgruntlement paid off so handsomely. Without saying much publicly, somehow Love and his representatives let everybody know that he had no plans to hang around Minnesota after this season. After a long summer and endless slog of rumors, Love ended up as LeBron's new running mate in Cleveland. Thus he goes from a player yet to log a postseason second in six NBA seasons to a key component of the 2014-15 championship chase. Love's individual production has never been in question. He's ranked in the top six in WARP in three of the last four seasons, the exception being an injury-marred 2012-13 campaign. Last season, only Kevin Durant and James had a better individual season.
Love became more perimeter-oriented last season, getting fewer shots at the rim and taking more 3s than ever. He's good enough behind the arc to make that work. He's also good enough as a post player to consistently attract double teams and he's a skilled passer. With Cleveland, Love may find himself as the No. 3 offensive options, which means a renewed effort at scoring around the rim and attacking the offensive glass. His usage rate has been right around 29 percent the last three seasons, and that's going to be difficult to maintain with James and Irving on the floor, not to mention Dion Waiters. However, Love finished sixth in the league in WARP in 2010-11 despite 23 percent usage. As for his much-criticized defense, he's had a positive defensive RPM in each of the last five seasons. Love can be an elite player without being the alpha dog and if he becomes that this season, he'll be handsomely rewarded for it when he hits free agency in July.
TRISTAN THOMPSON, PF/C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Top rebounder on both ends.
+ Switch in shooting hand helped free throw percentage.
+ Needs to improve rim protection and overall defense.
Analysis
Tristan Thompson has started all 82 games the last two seasons and played almost exclusively at power forward. Now he's eligible for an extension and getting ready to play for the best team he's been on by far. And yet somehow, this combination of factors has cast his immediate future into uncertainty. Thompson won't be starting at 4 for Cleveland anymore, not with Love around. He's also not likely to get the $40 million extension he's reportedly after, not with a massive contract to Kyrie Irving on the books, and two more headed to Love and LeBron James next summer. Yet the Cavaliers need Thompson in the here and now, and as insurance for the unlikely possibility that Love wants to bolt for the West Coast after the season.
Thompson made the unprecedented move of switching his primary shooting hand from left to right last season. It worked for the most part. His free throw percentage was easily his best, and he became more efficient as a face-up shooter. That's all relative though, because he ending taking more shots away from the hoop, his field-goal percentage slipped. The bottom line was lower volume and improved, but still below average, offensive efficiency. Thompson is a dynamic rebounder though and draws a high rate of fouls. His defensive metrics are poor. He doesn't block a lot of shots and his defensive RPM was minus-1.9. Nevertheless, there has been talk of Cleveland starting him at center in hopes of keeping brittle center Anderson Varejao upright for a deep playoff run. It's crucial for Thompson's financial future that he shows he can contribute to a winning team now that he has a chance.
RESERVES
SHAWN MARION, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Remains a versatile and effective defender.
+ Runs the floor and is satisfied with a supporting role.
+ Not an elite shooter, but effective enough from corners to may overloading defenses pay.
Analysis
Marion has been around long enough and accomplished enough that he can call his own shots. So it was entirely his prerogative to bypass a chance for more playing time with a team like Indiana to instead chase another championship ring with Cleveland. His acquisition by the Cavaliers could prove to be an important move.
Marion is still an effective and versatile defender, and his presence should allow the Cavs to ease the load of LeBron James on that end and to play some skill big lineups. At the other end, Marion runs the floor well despite his age and offers a catch-and-shoot option. With his herky-jerky form, Marion is far from an elite shooter but did rank in the 68th percentile in catch-and-shoot situations last season, per Synergy. He has hit 34 and 35 percent, respectively, from the corners the last two seasons.
ANDERSON VAREJAO, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Skilled center with glue-player skills.
+ Elite rebounder on both ends.
+ Good position interior defender who lacks the classic length of a true rim protector.
Analysis
There were endless reverberations from LeBron's return to Cleveland, but it's safe to say few people were more directly affected than Anderson Varejao. With just $4 million of his $9.7 million 2014-15 salary guaranteed, at the end of last season it seemed likely Varejao's Cleveland career had run its course. Now he gets to reap the benefits of sticking out the four non-LeBron seasons with his former teammate back in the fold. Varejao's performance at first spiked without James, but he was always hurt. Last season, his production fell off in the form of declining usage and rebound rates, but at least he played 65 games.
If there is one area of concern about the revved-up Cavaliers, it's interior defense. Varejao at his best is an ideal glue player. He passes well, doesn't need many possessions and controls the defensive glass. As a center, he's not an ideal lane protector, with a block rate less than half of what you expect from the position. Yet he's still effective because of above-average steal rates for the position and the ability to draw offensive fouls, though he fell off on the latter front last season. The lack of length shows up more in Varejao's metrics against the post. He's the best Cleveland has for the job, yet Dave Blatt needs to keep him healthy. I'll be a tricky balancing act.
MIKE MILLER, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ One of the most consistent and prolific 3-point shooters in the league.
+ Value-added floor game appears to be in decline.
+ Has history of back trouble, though played 82 games last season.
Analysis
It must be nice to play only when you want to, not because you need to. Mike Miller could have retired at pretty much any point the last three years and no one would really have batted an eye. After a long, distinguished career, it appeared that Miller had been done in by persistent back trouble, a problem that eventually resulted in Miami hitting him with the amnesty clause. He ended up hanging around with Memphis, his original team, and lo and behold, Miller played in all 82 games and logged over 1,700 minutes for the Grizzlies. He was effective, too, hitting 46 percent on 3s and putting up an elite 61.9 true shooting percentage.
Miller has hit over 42 percent or better behind the arc in four of the last five seasons, awfully impressive for a guy who uses about half his possessions shooting from deep. However, his abilities as a passer and surprising effectiveness on the boards have always marked Miller as more than a mere shooting specialist. That wasn't as true in Memphis last year, as his assist rate was well down, his turnovers were up and his rebound rate was the lowest of his career. The declining athletic factors could be chalked up to overuse, or he may just be a 34-year-old, 14-year veteran who has been injured a lot. That's why Cleveland was thrilled to sign him to provide shooting, but made sure to acquire other options just in case.
JAMES JONES, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Consistent high-level deep shooter with range and quick release.
+ Rarely ventures inside arc or displays any kind of floor game.
+ Serviceable if immobile defender with good length.
Analysis
It's so tempting to reduce Jones' annual scouting report to eight words: Shoots nothing but 3s, and shoots them well. To do so would understate what the 11-year veteran brings to the table. But only a little.
There is a reason why contending teams love to have Jones around to ride LeBron James' coattails, because there is more to being a premier shooting specialist than meets the net. There is range (average shot distance of 22 feet or more in each of the last five seasons, per basketball-reference.com), consistency (only nine players have a higher success rate over the last five years) and a quick, high release that allows him to take advantage of defenders who venture away from him at all.
According to Synergy, Jones ranked in the 98th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot situations in 2013-14. You help off Jones, he burns you. The unfortunate reality is that our eight-word scouting report is apt: Jones is devoid of value-added qualities to make his shooting playable, and that's why he's played less than 250 minutes in his two most recent seasons.
A.J. PRICE, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Caretaker point guard who lacks standout NBA skill.
+ Has taken nearly a third of his career attempts from 3-point range while shooting 32.1 percent.
+ Adequate defender.
Analysis
Invited to 2013 training camp by the Timberwolves, A.J. Price beat out second-round pick Lorenzo Brown for the third point guard spot and stuck on the roster nearly all year while playing just 99 minutes total. Waived in April, Price is in training camp with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Since arriving on the scene with a solid rookie season for the Indiana Pacers, Price has gone backward. Primarily a 3-point shooter on offense — he's taken nearly as many 3s as 2s in his career — Price has connected on just 31.2 percent of his long-range attempts since shooting 35.0 percent as a rookie. He's a low-mistake player who also creates little offense for his teammates, and doesn't move the needle either direction on defense. That puts Price squarely on the NBA's fringe, and now that he's exhausted any "potential," he's probably looking at grinding out a career one 10-day contract at a time.
MATTHEW DELLAVEDOVA, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Steady, efficient player who knocks down good percentage of open looks.
+ A worker on defense, can get in trouble if left on an island.
+ Limited athletically.
Analysis
After going undrafted, Matthew Dellavedova didn't seem like a good candidate to make a splash as a rookie, but he played 1,276 minutes of better-than-replacement basketball in his first NBA season. Even on a souped-up Cavaliers roster, Dellavedova offers the perfect skill set for a reserve and, just as importantly, he does it at the right price. Dellavedova is a steady player who can facilitate an offense at the point, but has the catch-and-shoot ability to play off the ball. If he's open, that is — according to Synergy, Dellavedova rated in the 91st percentile on open catch-and-shoot looks, but just the 28th percentile against close-outs.
Still, Dellavedova is a steady, low turnover player who hit 37 percent of his 3s. He's a dogged worker on the defensive end and causes problems as a shot contester, though his performance declines if you can get him in isolation. Dellavedova won't turn a lot of heads, but with the stars at the top of the Cleveland roster earning star-player dollars, the Cavs could do worse for a fourth guard option.
JOE HARRIS, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Dead-eye long-range shooter with a quick release.
+ Decent foul-drawing rates suggest ability to make plays against close-outs.
+ Good defender in college will have to battle against limited athleticism.
Analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers nabbed the Virginia Cavaliers' Joe Harris with the No. 33 pick in June, then gave him two guaranteed years on a three-year deal to serve as one of the cadre of shooters that will help space the floor for James. After fueling Virginia's rise over his four college seasons, during which he shot 41 percent on 3s, Harris seems well equipped to do just that. The amount of time he sees, and it's not likely to be much as a rookie, will depend on any value-added qualities he can pair with his shooting. He doesn't project to create offense, though he did have a sneakily solid foul-drawing rate for Virginia. It'll likely come down to defense, which could be limited by athletic shortcomings. Harris did play the second-most minutes on the fifth-most efficient defensive team in Division I last season. He did so with solid play-by-play metrics, with the possible red flag of poor results against isolations.
ALEX KIRK, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Solid rebounder and shot blocker
+ Seven-foot frame sometimes burdened with back issues and poor conditioning.
+ Needs to develop face-up shot.
Analysis
Alex Kirk is an undrafted rookie from New Mexico trying to earn his way onto the Cavaliers' roster. The 7-0 center was a solid rebounder and shot blocker for the Lobos despite back trouble and questionable conditioning. He was high volume for a big man in college, with just OK efficiency. He did most of his damage around the basket, though he did float out to the perimeter at times to flash an unreliable jumper. SCHOENE sees Kirk as a fringe type, with comparables like Robert Sacre and Tyler Zeller. If he works on his body and improves his face-up game, he's got the raw material to have a career.
BRENDAN HAYWOOD, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ One-time dependable rebounding and rim protector.
+ Struggled to finish around rim in last healthy season, and physical skills appeared to be in decline.
+ Missed all of last season with fracture foot but was expected back for start of training camp.
Analysis
Brendan Haywood put up his worst season in 2012-13, broke his foot and missed all of last season for Charlotte, was dealt to Cleveland in a seemingly benign draft night trade, and right now is slated to be the backup center on a team favored to win the championship. How's that for a narrative? The story won't have a happy ending if Haywood doesn't play better than he did when we last saw him. He hit just 43 percent from the field and his athletic indicators were at a career low. SCHOENE sees Haywood below replacement and if that's accurate, the Cavs will quickly seek another option. After the season it gets interesting: Haywood has a $10.5 million non-guaranteed year on the books for 2015-16, which could make him a key part of a trade bringing back yet another high-level superstar to the Cavs, if they are willing to spring for the dollars.
**********************************
Indiana Pacers: 2014-15 roster
PROJECTED STARTERS
GEORGE HILL, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Steady, efficient combo guard
+ As consistent as they come, but tends toward spirals of deference
+ Capable but undersized defender who doesn't take unwarranted chances
Analysis
For six years in the NBA, George Hill has been the model of certain kind of player. He doesn't force the action, doesn't make mistakes, takes advantage of the chances that come his way and adds value at the defensive end. He's done all this on a steady stream of outstanding teams. Yet as the Pacers' season unraveled, there was a sense that Indy needed more from Hill, more assertiveness, more creativity. Now, with Paul George out and Lance Stephenson gone to Charlotte, we will finally find out just what Hill's ceiling is.
Hill's deferential nature went amok last season as his usage rate of 14.8 percent is obscenely low for a starting point guard, even ones who share in playmaking responsibility. Hill's shooting percentages, inside and outside the arc, and at the foul line, are as consistent as anybody's in the league. The guy knows what he can and can't do. His turnover rate last year was a career worst, but still very good for the position. If it goes up further this season, it might almost be a good thing, evidence that Hill is trying to force the issue. That, more than anything, is what the Pacers need from him this season.
C.J. MILES, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Skilled wing player with emergent perimeter game
+ Has honed shot selection and become deadly shooter from corners
+ Has grown into an adequate defender, though is undersized when playing 3
Analysis
Is this the dawn of the C.J. Miles era in Indianapolis? Coming off his best season, Miles signed a four-year, $18 million deal with the Pacers, ostensibly to be the top reserve wing behind Paul George and Lance Stephenson. Now, Miles is the best hope on the roster for replacing at least some of that big chunk of lost production. Miles has blossomed by finding a much better balance between usage and efficiency. His usage rate of 22.1 percent for Cleveland last season was his lowest in four years, but his true shooting percentage climbed to well over league average. Miles shot a career-best behind the arc, and emerged as a deadly threat from the corners.
The usage mostly comes from field-goal attempts. He doesn't get to the line at a high rate despite above-average athletic ability, and he's a very good caretaker of the ball. With the Pacers, Miles' defense will be on the spot. His RPM was positive last season for just the second time in his career, and his percentages in rebounds, blocks and steals are all above average for a 2-guard, and about average for a typical wing. Unless Solomon Hill breaks out in his second season, Miles should find himself in a starting role on the wing and may emerge as the Pacers' leading scorer.
CHRIS COPELAND, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Sweet-shooting combo forward
+ Handles ball well for player his size
+ Poor defense keeps him off the court
Analysis
Chris Copeland was brought in by the Pacers to provide some much-needed bench scoring. He shot the ball well, but his defensive shortcomings prevented him from winning the favor of Frank Vogel. Copeland was almost exclusively a spot-up option for the Pacers, with about a quarter of the possessions he used for the Knicks inside the arc turning into 3-point shots. That led to a decline in foul drawing. Copeland's assist rate doubled without any corresponding uptick in turnovers.
Not that any of that matters. Copeland's defensive RPM was minus-1.6. His per-play rating at Synergy put him the first percentile, i.e., the very lowest rung. He's got a guaranteed $3.1 million coming his way for 2014-15, and with Paul George out, there are frontcourt minutes to be had. But after a season in which Copeland played just 268 minutes, does anyone really think Copeland will be soaking up that free court time?
DAVID WEST, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ One of league's most consistent pick-and-pop threats
+ Has shown heightened passing skills late in career
+ Excellent defender at position who lets team play big
Analysis
One player whom the Pacers will almost certainly lean on with more frequency is David West. He's a consistent shooter in the post and with his uncanny midrange jumper, with 2-point field goal percentages that have landed between 49 and 51 percent in each of the last five seasons. His usage fluctuates depending on what's going on around him, yet West just keeps stroking in those pick-and-pop jumpers. He's a rare player whose efficiency seems to trend up the more looks he gets, so if he uses three or four percent more possessions, his success rate should be fine. Goodness knows, Indiana will need him to use those additional possessions.
West's floor game is also remarkably consistent with one exception: Suddenly over the last two years, his assist rates have reached career-best levels. Since the Pacers don't have a pure point guard who can break down a defense, it's likely Frank Vogel will run a lot of sets through West at the elbow, though you don't want him to hold the ball too much when his ability to shoot after a ballscreen is so effective. West is a solid, consistent defender who protects the lane and allows the Pacers to stay big no matter who is on the floor.
ROY HIBBERT, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ One of league's top rim protectors
+ Post game is erratic, as is face-up jumper
+ Effort on boards needs to be more consistent
Analysis
It was a maddening season for Roy Hibbert. Over the course of a few months, he went from the heart of the league's best defense and fan favorite to an inconsistent nightmare with wavering confidence. As the Pacers' slide grew worse, Hibbert's no-show outings grew only more common. Then, in the playoffs, Hibbert showed up just often enough to help Indiana get to the East finals. You simply never knew what you were going to get from one game to the next.
The bottom line is it was Hibbert's worst season, a sad outcome for a player who had worked so hard to improve steadily throughout his NBA career. His inconsistency on the offensive end eventually led to fewer opportunities. His rebounding all but disappeared at times, an unforgivable sin for a 7-2 center. With Paul George out, Indiana needs Hibbert to bounce back in a major way. He spent part of his offseason working with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who expressed optimism about the results. If the only outcome is for Hibbert to hone and diversify his post moves and improve on his 44 percent shooting, that's enough.
RESERVES
PAUL GEORGE, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Has blossomed into one of league's best two-way players
+ Has increased volume to star levels without impacting efficiency
+ Broken leg will likely cost him season, with aftereffects as yet uncertain
Analysis
Injuries stink. When they occur in the summer and take one of the NBA's brightest young stars out for an entire season, that stinks even more. Paul George's broken leg is a thing we cannot un-see and it has cast the Pacers organization into a season of limbo. We don't know what the long-term effects might be. We do know that, like Derrick Rose, George is not only missing games he could help Indiana win, he's missing developmental time at a point in his career when he was getting better by leaps and bounds. There is a remote possibility that George returns late in the season, but there seems to be no reason to push it.
George's evolution last season was highlighted by tremendous growth in his offensive game. His usage rate in four years has grown from 18 percent to 28 percent with his efficiency remaining high all the while. That's star stuff. The next step is for George to further enhance his playmaking skills and cut turnovers. As good as he was, his offensive RPM was just plus-0.5. His defense remained well above average, tough it's possible the increased offensive workload impacted him on that end. His block and rebound rates were down, and his defensive RPM slipped to plus-1.7.
C.J. WATSON, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Steady, consistent deep-shooting threat
+ Just OK as a playmaker; better playing off others
+ Solid on-ball defender
Analysis
C.J. Watson remains a pretty ideal third guard, who provides plenty of traits to man both backcourt positions and enough production to provide plenty of bang for a limited amount of bucks. At the point, Watson is a capable passer who gets into trouble with the ball if he tries to do too much, and he's never looked completely comfortable initiating an offense. Off the ball, he's a high-level catch-and-shoot player that a defense must account for when he spots up.
Watson is consistently lethal from the corners, shooting 44.4 percent from there in his career, per basketball-reference.com. He's never going to be a high-volume creator, and needs to play alongside playmakers to be effective. On defense, Watson ranked in the 88th percentile per the on-ball metrics provide by Synergy, and he's always been effective in the passing lanes. Nevertheless, his defensive RPM has been negative three years in a row. Still, Watson may not be a solution to the personnel problems facing the Pacers entering the season, but he's certainly not one of them.
LUIS SCOLA, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Face-up big with reliable midrange jumper
+ Good defensive rebounder and position defender
+ Limited offensive utility who gets into trouble when he tries to do anything but take jump shots
Analysis
Luis Scola had his worst NBA season in his first year with the Pacers, a result that made all the more unfortunate by the success of the guys given up for Scola, Gerald Green and Miles Plumlee. Scola's face-up game from the frontcourt is a different element than either one of those guys can offer, but it's still a deficit in production the Indiana bench could not afford. Scola is what he is: A high-volume, jump-shooting power forward. He shoots 45 percent on long 2s like clockwork, but has never developed the range to the 3-point line.
Scola's rebounding is above average and probably his best quality. He's a heady position defender who always posts a positive RPM on that end, but his lack of elite length or athleticism limits his ability to protect the lane. At 35, Scola's effectiveness will be determined by his efficiency, and his true shooting percentage has declined without interruption for five straight seasons.
IAN MAHINMI, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Athletic, mobile defensive big man
+ Good shot-blocker and lane protector
+ Limited on offense and turnover prone
Analysis
Ian Mahinmi is a replacement-level backup center, yet he's exactly what you look for at the position. He's athletic and has better mobility on defense that starter Roy Hibbert, so you can turn to him if teams start pick-and-rolling Hibbert off the court. He's an active offensive rebounder and, before last season, a high-percentage finisher around the hoop. He has a face-up jumper, but you don't want him going to that well too often.
Like so many of the Pacers, Mahinmi's metrics suddenly morphed from their usual patterns. His usage rate fell by nearly six percent even though he as usual drew fouls at a steady rate. His rebound percentages dropped through the floor. He's always been a finisher with unsteady hands, so his 24 assists and 58 turnovers in seven games were par for the course. Whatever was wrong last season needs to get right, or Mahinmi will lose minutes to Lavoy Allen. He might have to ease into the season as he recovers from a dislocated shoulder suffered while playing for France in the FIBA World Cup.
DONALD SLOAN, PG/SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Below-average playmaker and ball protector
+ Inconsistent outside stroke
+ Consistently negative defensive impact
Analysis
Someday, many decades down the line, they may use the words "third-string point guard" as Donald Sloan's epithet. He can be counted on to contribute 200 to 500 minutes per season of below-replacement lead guard play. Sloan doesn't have a trait that stands out as above-average, but coaches seem to like him. In August, the Pacers fully guaranteed his salary for the coming season.
RODNEY STUCKEY, PG
| Pelton's 2013-14 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Talented, physical slasher
+ Inconsistent shot-making a constant bugaboo
+ Defensive metrics have deteriorated over the years
Analysis
Few players were in more need of career rehab than Rodney Stuckey entering the offseason, and in Indiana, he may have come to the right place. Stuckey's career in Detroit had deteriorated badly, hitting bottom with a minus-2.1 WARP last season for a woeful team. Those days when he seemed like the Pistons' foundation player who would keep the wins coming when Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton moved on seem like a very long time ago. Yet Stuckey is just entering his age-29 season. Given a winning, structured program like the Pacers', it's not too late for Stuckey to make a mark.
The opportunity is there, too, with Lance Stephenson gone and Paul George felled by injury. Stuckey projects to have the highest usage rate on Indiana entering the season. That may not be a good thing. Offensive volume has never been a problem, but efficiency has. He's just never been able to develop a jump shot, inside the arc or out, and that's undermined his considerable skills off the dribble. He's a combo guard by nature with average playmaking skills, traits he shares with new backcourt mate George Hill. Stuckey says he's been working on his jumper and if the results are positive, and he re-commits himself to the defensive end, Stuckey could be in for a comeback season. His deal is a one-year, vet-minimum pact, so he's got plenty of motivation.
LAVOY ALLEN, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
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Scouting report
+ Strong defensive big man at two positions
+ Average rebounder
+ Limited to sporadic face-up jumpers and putbacks on offense
Analysis
Evan Turner has come and gone in Indiana, his acquisition something of an icon of the Pacers' late-season collapse. The forgotten man in that trade, defensive big man Lavoy Allen, is still around through. Like Turner, Allen was a free agent this summer and Larry Bird gave him a one-year guaranteed offer for the vet minimum to provide depth behind Roy Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi. Allen is a limited offensive player who can knock down the occasional jump shot and moves the ball well.
Last season, Allen attempted 13 3s, making just two, but it's something he's working on. Allen's a very good interior defender even though he's not an elite shot-blocker. He's got a strong, low base that serves him well in the post and enough mobility to cover big-man responsibilities out on the floor. His defensive RPM is always positive, reaching 1.7 last season. If you can do one thing competently on each end of the floor, you can stay employed. Allen is also just 25, so there is time for him to add elements to his game.
ARINZE ONUAKU, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Burly, unskilled big man
+ High percentage rebounder and shot-blocker
+ Takes advantage of limited chances around the basket
Analysis
Four years after leaving Syracuse, Arinze Onuaku emerged out of the D-League to get a couple of cameos in the NBA. Onuaku was a shot-blocker, high-level rebounder and high-percentage finisher at the basket in the D-League. He didn't do much with his NBA cameos, but the Pacers are giving him a shot to make an impression during their training camp. It's a long shot.
DAMJAN RUDEZ, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Long, efficient shooter with range
+ Solid on-ball defensive metrics overseas despite low translated rebound, steal and block rates
+ Experienced and polished in high-level European leagues
Analysis
Like most of Indiana's offseason acquisitions, Damjan Rudez was acquired for a team that will not exist. Rudez is a 6-10 combo forward was brought in from Spain to stretch the floor on a Paul George-led squad. Now, he's one of the possible solutions to the problem of replacing the fallen star. Rudez shot 41 percent during his European career and and 46 percent from deep last season. He's also a career 86 percent foul shooter, so it's understandable why Larry Bird sees him capable of boosting the Pacers' fortunes on the perimeter.
SCHOENE sees Rudez as a low-volume specialist who will struggle inside the arc. Rudez's defense will probably determine his playing time, and Synergy rated him in the 85th percentile of international players last season, with solid metrics in everything except post defense. Yet, Rudez figures to get pushed around some initially and it would be a surprise to see him play anything but a small rotation role as a rookie.
CHRIS SINGLETON, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Talented defensive player who needs discipline
+ Has not been able to carve out any kind of offensive role as a pro
+ Needs to revamp form on jump shot
Analysis
Singleton came into the league as an athletic wing with terrific length and a certain pedigree as a former ACC defensive player of the year. It seemed certain that at the very least, he would emerge as premier stopper. While his defense has been a plus over three NBA seasons, injuries and offensive woes have prevented Singleton from becoming a useful performer. The Wizards declined to pick up their option for the fourth year on Singleton's rookie contract, and he was invited to the Pacers' training camp on a non-guaranteed deal.
Obviously, Singleton has a lot to prove, and with Paul George missing from the Pacers' defense this season, Indiana could be a good fit for him. Singleton has to stay healthy first and foremost after being limited to 25 games last season because of foot trouble. His defensive RPM has been plus-1.3 or better in each of his three seasons, and his steal and block rates have been terrific for a wing. He also gambles too much and leaves too many shooters unguarded. The Wizards tried to use him as a stretch-4 option, but he's too slight for that and is just a 29-percent career 3-point shooter.
ADONIS THOMAS, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ High-flying athlete
+ Thickly built and likes to mix it up in lane
+ Developing into high level shooter, but lacks well-defined NBA niche
Analysis
Former Memphis player Adonis Thomas landed a couple of 10-day contracts last season, for Orlando and Philadelphia, respectively. He didn't get much of an opportunity either place, and didn't show much. He did get extended run in the D-League, where he averaged 16.6 PPG and shot a torrid 47 percent from the 3-point line. He's a thickly-built tweener forward who lacks the length to play much 4 and the ball handling chops to play on the wing. Still, Thomas is a great athlete, and if he can translate that 3-point shooting to an NBA preseason, you never know. The Pacers invited him to camp to give him a shot at doing just that.
SHAYNE WHITTINGTON, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Good shooting big man from midrange
+ Needs to extend shooting range
+ Good rebounder and shot-blocker, needs to prove ability to guard out on the floor
Analysis
Shayne Whittington was generating some buzz before the draft. Then, when in Chicago working out for the draft combine, he landed awkwardly and broke his leg. He was back working out by August, and the Pacers will give him a shot in training camp of nudging out someone in their deep frontcourt. Whittington has a legit big-man frame and the ability to face up from midrange. If his future is as a stretch option, he'll need to improve his range after hitting just eight 3-pointers in four years at Western Michigan. He consistently was ranked nationally with his defensive rebound and block percentages in college, but his on-ball metrics against spot-ups and isolations were so-so. If he can defend and hit 3s somewhere down the line, his body will get plenty of chances. First, Whittington has to get healthy.
C.J. FAIR, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Long, lean frame and explosive athletic ability
+ Needs to add muscle and range to his jumper
+ Percentages suggest some defensive upside
Analysis
After steady growth over four seasons for Syracuse, C.J. Fair went undrafted despite elite athleticism and ideal length for a wing, albeit with the need to add bulk to his frame. He played for Dallas' entrant in the Vegas summer league, didn't do a whole lot to draw attention and ended up with a camp invite from the Pacers. Jim Boeheim leaned heavily on Fair last season, and while his face-up game was improved, he still lacks the kind of stroke and range he'll need in the NBA.
Fair's immediate way in is as a defender, but his build and his background in the Syracuse zone work against him there as well. His block, steal and rebound rates suggest a good deal of upside. His on-ball indicators are a big question mark, and it's because of the zone. To wit: He was assigned responsibility for just 156 defensive plays by Synergy, and 133 of those plays were spot-up jumpers. Statistically speaking, we don't know what Fair is as a defender. We just know he's long, and he can jump.
************************************************
Detroit Pistons: 2014-15 roster
PROJECTED STARTERS
BRANDON JENNINGS, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ High-volume, low-efficiency point guard.
+ Skilled at running pick-and-roll but struggles with consistency on shot.
+ Defensive RPM was one of the league's worst last season.
Analysis
Believe or not, Jennings did make adjustments to fit in with the frontcourt-heavy Pistons: His usage rate was a career low and his assist rate a career high. His turnovers were up but still acceptable for a point guard. Yet it remains a stretch to think of Jennings as a pass-first point guard. He shot 3s more frequently, but his stroke has always been on and off, and last season, it was off. He also struggled inside the arc as usual, hitting under 40 percent there for the first time since his rookie season.
Jennings is a capable orchestrator of the pick-and-roll — not elite, but solid, and that goes for both scoring and passing. Yet his shot selection is a constant bugaboo, and it now seems reckless to pair him in the same lineup as Josh Smith. Jennings once rated as a mediocre defender in Milwaukee under Scott Skiles. The past two seasons, he's been awful, sinking to minus-5.0 in defensive RPM with Detroit. He's got two more seasons on his deal with the Pistons, so Stan Van Gundy will attempt to finally focus Jennings' considerable talents in the right direction.
JODIE MEEKS, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Premier 3-point shooter.
+ Solid athlete who can make plays off dribble.
+ Undersized for a wing and pays for it on defense.
Analysis
Meeks parlayed a career season into a serious payday after inking a three-year deal with the Pistons for just shy of $19 million, a deal some saw as an overpay. Maybe, but Meeks is a pure sharpshooter through and through. The Lakers' need for offense gave Meeks more chances to shine than ever last season, and he hit a career-best 40 percent from 3-point range. He diversified his game to do more damage inside the arc, where he shot over 51 percent, and at the foul line. The bottom line was a true shooting percentage just over 60 percent. That will earn a guy some dollars.
The question: Was this a result of a player on a bad team simply putting up numbers for a contract? Meeks' offensive RPM was plus-1.0, which suggests his production wasn't achieved at the expense of the team. His usage rate, while up, was still below average, so it's not like he was just chucking shots. Meeks is a solid athlete just entering his prime seasons, and while he's not a great defender, his shooting is something the Pistons should be able to count on through the duration of his contract.
CARON BUTLER, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Declining athleticism undermines defensive impact.
+ Respected pro who helps locker-room chemistry.
+ Has carved out a late-career niche as spot-up shooter and is effective from the corners.
Analysis
Butler signed a two-year, $9 million deal in the offseason as part of Van Gundy's effort to horde as many floor-stretching shooters as he could find. The second year is a team option. Butler started last season with Milwaukee, near his hometown of Racine, Wisconsin, but proved to be out of place with the rebuilding Bucks. He was dealt to the Thunder and played a lot during OKC's playoff run, though he didn't play particularly well. Butler's postseason PER was just 6.8, and his declining athleticism was on display inside the arc, where he went just 14-for-49.
Butler has been a few ticks above or below replacement level for five seasons now. His new role is as a 3-and-D wing, but there isn't any evidence that the "D" part of the equation is working. Last season, his defensive RPM lagged to minus-3.2. As for the 3s, he's hit 39 percent in each of the past two seasons, and he's been particularly sharp from the corners. That element, along with the respect Butler commands in the locker room, is a welcome addition to the Pistons' mix, even if it doesn't amount to a large on-court role.
JOSH SMITH, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ One of league's most efficient scorers inside arc. Doesn't shoot there often enough.
+ One of league's least efficient scorers outside arc. Shoots there way too often.
+ Struggled defensively playing out of position, and rebound percentages suffered accordingly.
Analysis
Four years to Smith for $54 million to play small forward. What could go wrong? Mark this down as a strike against the "talent finds a way" crowd. Smith is not a small forward. Say what you will about the accuracy of positional designation, but whatever you wanted to call Smith last season, it did not work. And really, no one was to blame other than Smith. He's a 28 percent career 3-point shooter, a shoddy rate forged over 10 seasons. Last season, he hit 26 percent, yet he tried more of them than ever before. By contrast, Smith took just 24 percent of his shots near the rim, per Basketball-Reference.com. He's been as high as 55 percent in a season. He converted 71 percent of those shots. He's been 68 percent or better four seasons running. According to 82games.com, Smith had an 11.5 PER when playing the 3. It was 17.8 at the 4. Seems like there's a lesson in there somewhere.
Smith spent the summer adding bulk in anticipation of spending more time in the lane. The last time he made up his mind to forgo 3s and take high-percentage shots, he had a career-best 13.5 WARP, ranking ninth in the league in 2009-10. There are few players more efficient inside the arc. If only he would stay there. SCHOENE can't anticipate any change of heart on Smith's part, so it's seeing only a modest bounce back. There is also the lingering problem of Smith's fit with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, which might resolve itself after the season if Monroe walks away in free agency. Smith will just be 29 this season, and he's got those three years left on his deal. Van Gundy must figure out a way to make this work, or the Pistons won't be going anywhere.
ANDRE DRUMMOND, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Post game lacks refinement and doesn't pass well out of double teams.
+ Operates best from elbows, but needs space to work.
+ One of league's best rebounders, but tends to gamble too much on defense.
Analysis
Andre Drummond might be on the fast track towards becoming the NBA's best center, and if that's within his grasp, who better to help than Stan Van Gundy, who once helped Dwight Howard achieve that status in Orlando? Drummond didn't progress in his second season as much as is commonly reported. He was in some ways more efficient as a rookie, and the Pistons' defense was better with him on the floor that first season. Yet he more than doubled his minutes, convincing some he improved more than he did. That's not to decry what Drummond has become. He's a dynamic force who has shot 61 percent or better in his first two seasons, and very nearly cracked the hallowed 60 mark in true shooting percentage despite his horrific foul shooting.
Drummond ranked 11th in the league in WARP despite so many warts in his game, which is truly scary. He has little game beyond 10 feet from the basket, and doesn't have refined post skills. For all of his efficiency around the basket, Drummond doesn't move the ball well when the defense commits an extra man. He's a beast of a finisher on the pick-and-roll and off the offensive glass, yet his overall effect in terms of RPM was basically neutral on both ends of the floor. Drummond has already become one of the leagues' best rebounders, and his mix of blocks and steal marks him both as a defensive playmaker and maybe a gambler. As Van Gundy refines Drummond's game, the sky is the limit. The foul shooting will always be an issue, but the Pistons have their man in the middle for the long term.
RESERVES
GREG MONROE, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Skilled big man with good passing skills.
+ Operates best from elbows, but needs space to work.
+ Above-average defender. He's tough with limited athleticism and can struggle in space.
Analysis
Perhaps the biggest causality of the Pistons' lackluster season was the 6-foot-11 Monroe. Sharing a frontcourt with Drummond and Smith proved difficult for Monroe, to say the least, and it went a long way toward masking the things Monroe does best. Monroe is very good with the ball in his hands but was used more last season as a finisher. His assist rate fell by more than two percent, and his rebounding was down, as was his usage. It doesn't help that Monroe has lost confidence in his midrange shot, hitting just 24 percent on long 2s.
Given Monroe's discomfort, it's less than shocking he spent the summer avoiding offer sheets on the restricted free-agent market and ultimately signed the Pistons' qualifying offer. The move gives him leisure to pick his team after the season and prevents Detroit from dealing him this season without his approval. However, forgoing what would have likely been a sizable contract extension is a risk if he gets hurt and is money he probably won't be able to make up even if he doesn't. It will be interesting see how Van Gundy focuses Monroe's strengths, of which there are plenty. One is simply showing up: Monroe has missed just three games in four seasons as a pro.
D.J. AUGUSTIN, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Quick, good-shooting guard who can get his own shot and score from deep.
+ Improved ballhandling and decision-making in Chicago, but still best at creating for himself.
+ Short-armed perimeter defender who hurts team at that end.
Analysis
Fit can be everything in the NBA. Augustin didn't have it in Indiana, where he shot 35 percent, nor in Toronto, where he shot 29 percent in 10 games before being released. Lo and behold, Augustin hooked up with a Bulls team beating the bushes for offensive help, and he emerged as an invaluable supplier of points. It was a one-sided affair — Augustin's perennially poor defense wasn't any better under Tom Thibodeau, and his defensive RPM was a career-worst minus-4.9. Yet he filled a need, using 22.6 percent of possessions, a career high, and putting up a 56.9 true shooting percentage, his best since his rookie season under Larry Brown. Augustin shot 40 percent from behind the arc and displayed a knack for getting to the foul line against closeouts.
Despite the solid performance, the Bulls had room for just one above-minimum backup behind Derrick Rose, and they picked Kirk Hinrich. Augustin's two-year, $6 million deal with Detroit was a little more than Hinrich got, but not by that much. Now we get to find out how Augustin fits on one of the league's most incongruent rosters. It's arguable that Augustin doesn't do much different than holdover Piston Will Bynum. Yet to declare Jennings as the starter at point under Van Gundy might be premature. He's going to go with the five guys who work the best together. Augustin provides some of the deep shooting the Pistons' oversized lineup lacked a season ago. Unfortunately, he also brings along the questionable defensive attributes of which Detroit had plenty in 2013-14.
WILL BYNUM, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Hyper, ball-dominant, instant-offense reserve.
+ Lacks range on outside shot.
+ Lacks size on defense and posts consistently poor metrics on that end.
Analysis
Bynum has consistently been an above-replacement volume scorer over the past half-decade. At 31, he's shown signs of slippage, and with just one season left on his contract and plenty of competition in the Detroit backcourt, Bynum could be at a career crossroads. Last season, Bynum was down in both volume and efficiency. He's never been able to develop a deep stroke — last season's 32 percent success rate behind the arc was his best yet. His assist rates are always solid, but his turnover rates are not. During each of the past three seasons, his offensive RPM has been in the red.
When you add it all up, you have a ball-dominating, undersized point guard who doesn't positively impact a team's offense. His defensive RPMs are annually among the worst in the game. With Van Gundy on the scene, Bynum might be hard pressed to find playing time. On the plus side, at 31, he's acknowledged the ravages of time by reportedly joining the league's cavalcade toward low-carb, low-sugar diets.
KENTAVIOUS CALDWELL-POPE, SG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Athletic, natural shooting guard who was often indecisive as a rookie.
+ Has potential as a deep-range shooter but struggled there last season.
+ Defensive impact was positive as a rookie and could improve further with support from the front line.
Analysis
Caldwell-Pope took a season to really adjust to the college level at Georgia, and the Pistons are hoping his second pro season demonstrates the same kind of leap he made as a sophomore for the Bulldogs. Caldwell-Pope struggled as a rookie, hitting just 32 percent from deep despite using 36 percent of his possessions by launching 3s. His athleticism didn't shine through on the offensive end, posting a foul-drawing rate well below average for his position. He was better on defense, where he put up a plus-13 RPM and better-than-average steal rate.
Yet Caldwell-Pope's lack of offensive production more than undermined that showing, and he was a full win below replacement level at the bottom line. Caldwell-Pope looked impressive in the Orlando summer league, averaging 24 points and displaying heightened confidence and assertiveness. He'll battle Meeks for Detroit's starting job at shooting guard, and Van Gundy has to hope Caldwell-Pope wins the battle. He's got the most upside as a two-way player than anybody else the Pistons have at the position.
LUIGI DATOME, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ European sharpshooter who shot poorly last season.
+ Good length and mobility for small forward position.
+ Rebounded and defended adequately.
Analysis
After a decade of carving out a reputation as one of the most dangerous shooters in Europe, Datome had a disappointing NBA debut. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Datome was a 40 percent 3-point shooter during his time overseas. As a Pistons rookie, he shot 18 percent, hitting seven of 39. He did show some ballhandling skills and was an average rebounder and defender. Yet he was brought in to shoot, and he failed.
The question is how much of it was adjustment to the NBA, how much was it the collective dysfunction on the Pistons and how much was that Datome simply isn't an NBA player? He's got the length and athleticism to do it and the track record to back up faith in his shooting. He's also got even more competition: Butler, Kyle Singler, Cartier Martin and Smith will all be vying for time. If Datome doesn't draw some positive attention, and fast, he'll find himself back in Italy this time next year.
SPENCER DINWIDDIE, PG
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Shoot-first combo guard with good size.
+ Heady, smooth player usually under control.
+ Lacks standout trait for defensive end.
Analysis
Dinwiddie was a potentially good get for Detroit at No. 38 in the draft. He was projected as a first-round pick through much of his career at Colorado, but his draft stock was kneecapped by a torn ACL. He's more heady than athletic as it is and can't afford to be slowed once he gets back on the court. Dinwiddie is a score-first combo guard with elite size when he's playing the point. He was super-efficient last season for the Buffs being getting hurt, posting a 66.7 true shooting percentage. On defense, Dinwiddie ranked in the 19th percentile according to Synergy, and his floor percentages project as merely adequate.
SCHOENE, which doesn't know about the knee injury, has an affinity for Dinwiddie's profile, forecasting him better than replacement level with an interesting mix of deep shooting, good volume and playmaking. As a second-rounder, the Pistons aren't risking much by taking on Dinwiddie's rehab, and they have plenty of depth to allow him to spend his rookie season getting right physically.
AARON GRAY, C
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Solid post scorer with good touch.
+ Poor hands undermine offensive efficiency.
+ Stout position post defender but struggles with lateral movement and doesn't leap well.
Analysis
Gray signed on with Detroit to back up Drummond, but depending how Van Gundy plans to deploy Monroe, that might not be much of a role. If it isn't, it won't be unfamiliar territory for a career reserve whose career high in minutes is 813. Gray has his positive attributes. He has consistently good touch around the basket (at least when he's not turning the ball over at a frightening rate). Gray is limited athletically, both in terms of lateral movement and leaping ability, and both shortcomings show up on the stat sheet: Gray's block rate projects as well below average for a center, and his indicators against the pick-and-roll are questionable. However, he scores well in straight post defense, and if you need a banger to come in, lean on a star big man, commit fouls and finish at a high rate, you can do worse than Gray, which is why he keeps finding work.
JONAS JEREBKO, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Long a stretch-4 option, finally lived up to billing last season.
+ Made more than two-thirds of looks from corners.
+ Coming off career season on defensive glass.
Analysis
Jerebko finally fulfilled his promise as a stretch-4 in the NBA last season, hitting 42 percent from downtown, 10 percent higher than his previous career best. Jerebko was particularly deadly from the corners. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Jerebko took about 30 percent of his 3s from the corners and shot an unreal 68 percent on those looks. Jerebko also posted a career-best defensive rebound rate and is above average on the glass overall. His defensive RPM was plus-0.8.
Yet he was on the wrong team for all of these traits despite Detroit's need for long-range shooting, because of the three big men the Pistons needed to wedge on the floor. That problem limited Jerebko to just 12 minutes per game. It's not going to get better, especially with the likelihood that Smith plays more at power forward. Jerebko is entering the last year of his contract, and if he decides to stay in the NBA beyond this season, he shouldn't have any trouble finding a team that can leverage his ability.
CARTIER MARTIN, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Consistent 3-point threat.
+ Some ability to create offense while limiting turnovers.
+ Posts consistently average to negative defensive metrics.
Analysis
Martin has been hanging on the fringes of the NBA for six seasons now. His career has been defined by an up-and-down performance that isn't surprising given the fragmented nature of his vagabond existence. While his overall game goes up and down, his 3-point shooting has been right at 39 to 40 percent four seasons running, and that's what keeps him employed. He's not an elite athlete or defender and often struggles inside the arc. When he doesn't, he's above replacement, as he was for Atlanta last season. His defensive RPM is usually negative, so when the shots aren't falling, Martin isn't playable. He joins a cadre of shooting options in Detroit and does so with his contract guaranteed for this season, at least.
TONY MITCHELL, PF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Active, athletic body.
+ Pounds the offensive glass.
+ Has potential as defensive stopper.
Analysis
High-flying Mitchell didn't give us much to go on with his first-season NBA performance, but it seems like he could carve out a role as a defensive specialist. Mitchell is an above-average defensive rebounder, and on the offensive end, he grabbed nearly 19 percent of his own team's misses when he was on the floor. Very small sample, sure, but he also grabbed about three offensive boards per contest in 11 D-League games. It's clear that Mitchell has the athleticism to impact a team's defense. Van Gundy must decide if Mitchell has the discipline to work within a scheme or if he has any kind of an offensive game.
KYLE SINGLER, SF
| Pelton's 2014-15 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Solid 3-point shooter, especially effective from the corners.
+ Doesn't create much in terms of own offense or chances for others.
+ Below average in rebounding and overall defense.
Analysis
Singler wasn't drafted in the first round in 2013, but he's played in every Pistons game since and has logged more than 4,600 minutes in the process. Yet he's 1.3 wins below replacement for his career. Thus is illustrated by Detroit's woeful shortage of floor-spacing wing shooters. Singler is a solid shooter, ranking a tick above league average behind the arc in his career. He's aces from the corners, hitting 49 percent from there in 2013-14.
The problem for Singler is he hasn't shown the value-added qualities you look for in a shooting specialist, so he's always apt to be replaced. Singer has solid defensive metrics per RPM, though he's a below average rebounder, but is just in the 31st percentile in Synergy's ratings. He can't create offense for himself and isn't much of a playmaker. Singler is a useful player, just not for 2,300 minutes per season. Hopefully, Van Gundy has added enough shooting to the Detroit roster to prevent his overexposure from recurring.
HASHEEM THABEET, C
| Pelton's 2013-14 Projections | ||||
| Player card » | ||||
Scouting report
+ Reclamation project of former No. 2 overall pick bore little fruit.
+ League's tallest player. Elite shot-blocker but provides little else.
+ Hasn't committed himself to improving his body. Core strength and balance are major issues.
Analysis
Two seasons in, Oklahoma City's efforts to rebuild Thabeet's career have yet to pay dividends. The former No. 2 overall pick, entering the final season of a three-year contract with the Thunder, played just 192 minutes in 2013-14 with Steven Adams claiming the backup center job. The addition of Mitch McGary dropped Thabeet further down the Oklahoma City depth chart, and in August, the team traded Thabeet to the Philadelphia 76ers, who promptly waived him.
What little we saw of Thabeet with the Thunder was generally in line with the rest of his career. Thabeet's size (at 7-3, he was the NBA's tallest player in 2013-14) makes him an elite shot-blocker and a presence on the offensive glass. However, Thabeet hasn't really improved his skills since entering the league, and he's faced questions about his desire. In particular, a lack of core strength leaves Thabeet frequently off balance, which allows him to get pushed around in the paint. Thabeet's size might be enough to keep him in the league. To actually be a contributor, he'll have to offer more.
אורי
27 אוק 2014 09:18:18תודה רבה על ההשקעה, מענין מה יהיה עם דטריוט, אני לא בונה על הצלחה גדולה
ירון
28 אוק 2014 13:45:55עם כל הכבוד זו לא השקעה. זה העתק הדבק מ ESPN בלי לתת את הקרדיט המינימלי למקור וקישור אליו