What are the implications of Kevin Durant's Achilles injury for the Golden State Warriors and his future?

Durant collapsed shortly into the second quarter of Game 5 of the NBA Finals, and Warriors officials believe Tuesday's MRI will confirm an Achilles tear, according to a report by ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski.

Durant likely will be out the remainder of the series and well beyond. Let's try to answer some of the key questions created by his injury.


What does Durant's absence mean for the rest of this series?

Although he played just 12-plus minutes, an argument can be made — as by Sam Vecenie of The Athletic on Twitter — that Durant's presence swung Game 5. After all, Golden State outscored Toronto by six points in that span and then held on despite being outscored by five the rest of the game. Even a brief Durant appearance allowed the Warriors to limit the minutes played by reserves Andrew Bogut and Alfonzo McKinnie, putting less strain on the team's thin bench.

Now, Golden State goes back to the rotation that produced a 3-1 deficit through the first four games of this series. In particular, Durant's injury puts more pressure on DeMarcus Cousins to contribute offensively, which has been hit or miss throughout the series. It appeared that Cousins would be out of the rotation on Monday before Durant's injury, but he came off the bench to provide 20 crucial minutes, scoring 14 points. If Cousins struggles in Game 6 or potentially Game 7, Steve Kerr has few alternatives for supplemental scoring.

The other challenge for Kerr and the Warriors is filling out the wing rotation. That gets more difficult if McKinnie is largely out of the mix after ineffective outings in Games 3 and 4. Quinn Cook's shooting was valuable in Game 5, and Golden State might have to extend his minutes to keep from overtaxing Andre Iguodala, who played a more reasonable 30 minutes in Game 5 after logging 38 in Game 4.

The Warriors are favored at home in Game 6 without Durant (by 3.5 points at Caesars sportsbook as of Monday night), but without him they would likely be considered underdogs if the series reaches a Game 7 in Toronto. Despite the dominance of road teams in this series (4-1 so far, though Golden State would have to win at home to force a Game 7), the value of home court is enormous historically in Game 7, at 5.7 points since 1984, after considering the regular-season point differential of the two teams.

Although there's broad evidence that home-court advantage is in decline, including three road wins in the past five playoff Game 7s — one of them by the Warriors last year at Houston in the Western Conference finals — Golden State's path to a championship is still uphill. Looking at a larger sample, the home team has won 11 of 16 Game 7s the past five postseasons, a 69% rate.


How much time can Durant be expected to miss?

The timetable for Achilles ruptures can vary widely from player to player, but within the past decade, no NBA player has returned to game action any sooner than 7 ½ months after suffering the injury. Wesley Matthews had the fastest comeback, playing in the Dallas Mavericks' final preseason game in October 2015 after being sidelined in early March while playing for the Portland Trail Blazers.

A 7 ½-month rehab would put Durant's return near the end of January. Conversely, other players have taken closer to a year to come back. The Warriors opted to handle Cousins' rehab conservatively, and he missed a week short of a full year before debuting for Golden State in January. Brandon Jennings, whose Achilles rupture occurred a month and a half before Matthews had the same injury, didn't return until nearly New Year's Day, more than 11 months after the injury.

The longer timeline for Durant's return would keep him out for the entire 2019-20 regular season, an outcome he must weigh heading into possible free agency.


What does the injury mean for Durant's free agency?

First, let's be clear: An Achilles rupture shouldn't deter any team Durant considers from offering him a max contract. Durant is simply too valuable — worth far more than the maximum salary prior to his injury — and the opportunity to get a player of his accomplishments is too rare for teams to worry about his short-term status.

That said, Durant has options. Specifically, he has a $31.5 million player option for 2019-20. If he wants to focus on getting healthy rather than worrying about his new basketball home, Durant could pick up his option and prepare for unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020.

However, because Durant isn't currently making the max, doing so would cost him an estimated $6.65 million, given the $38.15 million he could make in free agency based on current cap projections. (Durant could make that amount next season regardless of whether he re-signs with the Warriors as a free agent or leaves, though Golden State could offer larger raises and an additional fifth year on the contract.)

Given the financial incentives, it would be surprising if Durant picks up his player option. In terms of his next contract, his injury might not affect his free agency at all. What could change is the aggressiveness of whatever team lands Durant — in the event he leaves the Warriors — to win now. If Durant will be limited or entirely unavailable in 2019-20, it might make more sense to orient the roster toward competing the following season, when he will be closer to 100 percent.


How effective will Durant be when he returns?

In all likelihood, Durant won't be the same player when he's back on the court. Of the 20 players for whom I have statistics for the season of their Achilles injury and the following season, just four performed better after returning than projected based on their pre-injury stats, according to my SCHOENE projection system. (These projections account for age and other factors besides injury that could be responsible for decline or improvement.)

On average, players have performed about 8% worse than projected in coming back from Achilles ruptures, though there is some indication that the rehab process is improving. Over the past decade, that figure has declined to about 6.5%, and three out of 11 players have beaten their projections.

Durant can take hope from fellow Maryland native Rudy Gay, one of those three players. Gay's most recent two seasons with the San Antonio Spurs after an Achilles rupture in January 2017 have been two of his most efficient seasons. Gay posted a career-best .583 true shooting percentage this year at age 32.

Even before the injury, Durant's best days were likely behind him, given that he'll turn 31 prior to the 2019-20 season. Still, applying a 6.5% decrease to Durant's 2019-20 projections would leave him one of the league's better players, if perhaps no longer quite in the conversation for the single best player in the NBA. That's an encouraging prospect after the difficult image of Durant being helped off the floor Monday following an injury that will have a huge impact on the league both in the remainder of this series and beyond.