4. כריס בוש, מיאמי היט, ETO

 

משכורת 19.1

ה-AAV= הוא ירצה חוזה ארוך. משהו כמו 100 מיליון ל-5 שנים. לכריס בוש יש שתי טבעות. הוא לא מחפש יותר דבר מלבד למלא את חשבון הבנק שלו בכמה שיותר כסף לקראת  הפנסיה. הוא לא מרגיש נאמנות מיוחדת לאיש מלבד לאשתו הפצצה וילדיו. אני לא מאמין שהוא יקבל 20 מיליון לעונה, אבל זה מה שהוא ידרוש, ויסכים לשחק עבור כסף זה אפילו בהפועל חולון.

5. זאק רנדולף, ממפיס גריזליז, PO (אופציה של השחקן)

משכורת 18.2 מיליון ה-AAV שלו בסביבות 12 מיליון לשנה, והוא ידוש חוזה לשלוש שנים.

לדעתי לא ישלמו לו הרבה מכל 10-12 מיליון כי כשמרק גאסול היה פצוע, הוא התקשה לעשות דברים בעצמו. במילים אחרות, הוא יהיה בעל ערך רק לקבוצה שיש לה סנטר טוב מאד. ללא מרק גאסול חלה ירידה באחוזי הקליעה והוא לא הצליח להחזיק את הקבוצה מעל 500. במילים אחרות – הוא לא השחקן שטוב מספיק לבנות מסביבו, אלא הוא רק תוספת טובה לקיים. מאז מרק חזר, הכל השתפר – כולל זאק, מה שמאמת את מחשבתי. אני מבסס את ה-AAV שלו די בהרבה על הערך של דיוויד ווסט בשוק, וכמה קווין גארנט קיבל מהנטס.

6. טים דאנקן, סאן אנטוניו ספארס.  PO

 

משכורת 10 מיליון.

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10. Gordon Hayward | SF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Utah Jazz

Hayward

2013-14 Salary: $3.5 million | Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, four years

Hayward has struggled with his shooting touch this season (3P% below 30 percent), but there will be no shortage of suitors willing to take a chance on him, particularly if he doesn't have to be a main offensive option. His size, age and skill level all make him a worthwhile investment, although his valuation gets knocked down to reflect the precipitous drop in shooting efficiency.

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5. Greg Monroe | C | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Detroit Pistons

2013-14 Salary: $4.1 million | Suggested AAV: $12.5 million/year, four years

Monroe

Monroe's season hasn't been the resounding statement he'd probably hoped it would be after failing to reach an agreement for an extension last October, but it bears mentioning that he's been able to maintain relatively even production despite playing in a pretty questionable situation. At 23 years old, he's got a world of potential, although his defense lags far behind his offense. This deal is framed against the comparable extensions signed by DeMarcus Cousins andDerrick Favors.

to score the ball and his rebounding improved, his field goal percentage plummeted to below 42 percent and the team fell behind in the standings. The good news is since Gasol's return, "Z-Bo" has gone back to his usual, efficient self and the team has been on a roll. But it does highlight his place as a complementary piece. The new estimate reflects this, and is based on recent deals signed byDavid West and Kevin Garnett.

7. Eric Bledsoe | PG | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns

2013-14 Salary: $2.6 million | Suggested AAV: $10.2 million/year, four years (incentives to reach $11.5 million per year)

Bledsoe

There are two ways to view Bledsoe's injury. You can either see it as another element of uncertainty that will temper potential offers given the small sample size of games played and concern for the health of his knee, or you believe he's proven everything he needs to and has earned his next contract. I think he's done more of the latter, pushing him closer to the next stratosphere of young point guards (Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson). My suggested contract would give him the opportunity to prove he is of that caliber.

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10. Gordon Hayward | SF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Utah Jazz

Hayward

2013-14 Salary: $3.5 million | Suggested AAV: $9 million/year, four years

Hayward has struggled with his shooting touch this season (3P% below 30 percent), but there will be no shortage of suitors willing to take a chance on him, particularly if he doesn't have to be a main offensive option. His size, age and skill level all make him a worthwhile investment, although his valuation gets knocked down to reflect the precipitous drop in shooting efficiency.

20. Trevor Ariza | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Washington Wizards

2013-14 Salary: $7.7 million | Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years

Ariza

Ariza went from being an invaluable piece in a championship team as an early 3-and-D player, to an overpaid player with an inflated self-opinion, to back to fulfilling the role he should have never left behind. One of the best corner 3-point shooters in the league (44 percent corners 3's), Ariza should be in demand for contending teams looking to upgrade their perimeter defense without sacrificing spacing. A three-year deal worth $16.5 million represents full midlevel exception.

21. Evan Turner | SF | RFA | 2013-14 Team: Indiana Pacers

Turner

2013-14 Salary: $6.7 million | Suggested AAV: $5.5 million/year, three years

Turner proved he could rack up raw per-game stats in Philly's uptempo offense with little repercussion on the defensive end. Now he has to prove he can subjugate his game to a team with something on the line other than lottery balls. If he struggles to assimilate within the Pacers' concept, his value can take a serious hit.

22. Shawn Marion | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Dallas Mavericks

Marion

2013-14 Salary: $9.3 million | Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year

Marion's defensive versatility and ability to manufacture scoring opportunities without having plays run for him can be a useful addition to a contending team. He's getting up there in age, so anything longer than a two-year deal would probably be too long a commitment.

23. Paul Pierce | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets

Pierce

2013-14 Salary: $15.3 million | Suggested AAV: $5.4 million/year, two years, player option on second year

Another player in mercenary mode, Pierce has lost a step since last year and isn't shooting as well, but he's still a savvy scorer and an underrated playmaker. He can't be one of your top 3 scorers anymore, but he can be an asset off the bench for a team looking to make the next step.

24. Thabo Sefolosha | SG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: OKC Thunder

Sefolosha

2013-14 Salary: $3.9 million | Suggested AAV: $5.0 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year

Oklahoma City's resident 3-and-D guy hasn't matched the 3P% levels of the last two years, but he's been automatic from the left corner (41 percent corner 3's) and has shot better than 38 percent on above the break 3-pointers over the last two months. Partially guaranteeing the final year of the deal gives the team some flexibility should he start to experience some slippage.

25. Avery Bradley | PG/SG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Boston Celtics

Bradley

2013-14 Salary: $2.5 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, three years

Bradley is one of the NBA's premier backcourt defensive players, but he poses a bit of an offensive dilemma in that he lacks the playmaking creativity to play point guard and isn't a reliable enough shooter to play off ball. A comparable would be Tony Allen's four-year, $20 million deal, but Bradley's smaller size doesn't give him as much versatility defensively as Allen.

26. Mario Chalmers | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Miami Heat

Chalmers

2013-14 Salary: $4.0 million | Suggested AAV: $4.5 million/year, two years

He's been the butt of many jokes over the years, but he has been the perfect complement for the Heat as a good defender, reliable 3-point shooter and fearless competitor. He's doing a better job this year of being aggressive offensively and creating off the dribble. A two-year, $9 million deal for Chalmers is appropriate for a third-rotation guard role.

27. Patty Mills | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: San Antonio Spurs

Mills

2013-14 Salary: $1.3 million | Suggested AAV: $4.0 million/year, two years

In what has become a recurring theme with the Spurs, a player has stepped up during the absence of another and has been individually productive while maintaining team performance. Mills has always been a terrific shooter (career 3P% just under 40 percent), but he's improved at playmaking, particularly out of pick and roll, even though the numbers might not necessarily bear out.

28. Andrei Kirilenko | SF | PO | 2013-14 Team: Brooklyn Nets

Kirilenko

2013-14 Salary: $3.2 million | Suggested AAV: $3.5 million/year, three years, partial guarantee on third year

While injuries kept Kirilenko sidelined for much of the start of the season, and his stats have been pedestrian at best, his return to the floor played a major role in the Nets' turnaround this calendar year, and his on/off rating (plus-2.4 Net Rating on versus minus-3.5 off court) is indicative of his impact. Still, his age and low traditional averages take away much of any leverage he'll have in free agency.

29. Steve Blake | PG | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Golden State Warriors

Blake

2013-14 Salary: $4.0 million | Suggested AAV: $3.3 million/year, two years

Blake's trade to Golden State gives him the opportunity that wasn't afforded to former teammate Gasol: to play meaningful minutes down the stretch and perhaps in the playoffs, a golden opportunity to play up his value. He's the sort of steady hand and good shooter that any team could use, and at $3.3 million AAV, he can be had via taxpayer midlevel exception,

30. P.J. Tucker | SF | UFA | 2013-14 Team: Phoenix Suns

Tucker

2013-14 Salary: $884,293 | Suggested AAV: $3.0 million/year, three years, non-guaranteed third year

Another pleasant surprise for the Phoenix Suns this season has been Tucker's development of a corner 3-point shot — he's hitting 39 percent on the year. He's a tough perimeter defender and has also been a boost on the boards.

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Amin Elhassan

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• Video coordinator, college scout, Phoenix Suns
• Assistant director of basketball operations, Phoenix Suns
• MBA from Arizona State University